Child care

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 During the final 2020 presidential debate, Joe Biden blasted Donald Trump for family-separation policies and government’s inability to reunite hundreds of children with their parents after a failure to keep records and contact details. Trump responded that the facilities were clean: “Let me say this. They worked it out, we brought reporters and everything. They are so well taken care of. They're in facilities that were so clean…”

The US government spends hundreds of millions of dollars on caring for children who should not have been separated from family members. “In fiscal year 2019, the latest year for which complete data are available, ORR awarded grants totaling over $1.8 billion to organizations providing shelter and other services to these children,” reports the US Government Accountability Office. “The numbers of these referrals have fluctuated over time, but increased substantially from almost 14,000 in fiscal year 2012 to more than 69,000 in fiscal year 2019.”

The numbers decreased sharply with media reports about the cruel policies. As of June 2020, there were 1,123 children in the care of the Office of Refugee Settlement. The GAO conducted audits since May 2019 and as of July this year, the Office of Refugee Settlement operated more than 170 facilities in 22 states. 

Current grant announcements specify that facilities must be state licensed or eligible to receive a license with 75 days of the grant award. A review suggested that most did not include such licenses in their applications, and some facilities struggled to meet the 75-day deadline. The review also found in March 2018 that one grantee had placed a child in a home with foster parents under investigation for sexual abuse of another unaccompanied child. “In fiscal years 2018 and 2019, ORR awarded grants to approximately 14 facilities that were unable to serve children for 12 or more months because they remained unlicensed. In addition, ORR did not provide any documentation that staff conducted a review of past performance for the nearly 70 percent of applicants that previously held ORR grants. Without addressing these issues, ORR risks awarding grants to organizations that cannot obtain a state license or that have a history of poor performance.”

Of 23 licensing agencies that provide licensing, 14 found deficiencies in at least one of the facilities in their state during fiscal years 2018 or 2019 – some of which were significant. Problems included administrative issues to threats to children’s health and safety.

Federal standards for reporting and inspections are lacking. “HHS monitors these facilities to ensure they're keeping children safe, among other things. But it hasn't met its own targets for how frequently it visits facilities, and doesn't consistently share information with state agencies that license them,” reports GAO. “Our recommendations include that HHS develop plans to meet its monitoring goals and share information with state agencies.”

Awarding grants to facilities with a history of poor performance puts children at risk. Separating children from their parents without cause, such as criminal violations, is a waste of taxpayer money.

Meanwhile, apprehension on the US southern border are on the rise.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: GAO and US Customs and Border Protection.

Depression?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The US economy could be in for a bumpy ride. The world has endured the health consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic since late 2019, but the economic consequences may have only just begun. 

The pandemic quickly slowed GDP growth in the United States and the government hurried with $3 trillion in stimulus spending. That spending, combined with opening economies - premature in many cases - caused GDP growth to spike. 

Yet the pandemic is not over, and so valuable time and stimulus funds have been wasted. Sizable numbers of jurisdictions and citizens continue to resist simple measures to control the spread, including mask or social-distancing mandates. 

So the numbers of cases continue to climb in the United States, rivaling the records set only a few months ago. Researchers project the number of deaths from Covid-19 by Feb 1 could range from  300,000 with a universal mask mandate and as many as 500,000 with restrictions eased.  

 

The US economy is built on unsustainable debt, and recovery requires a multi-prong approach - with targeted economic stimulus along with social measures that include self-discipline, masks, social distancing and crowd avoidance. "Social norms and the behavior of peers such as friends, family members, and colleagues affect behaviors," explains a group of researchers for Applied Health Economics and Health Policy. "Herding behavior occurs when people consider a certain behavior to be good or bad based on the behavior of other people and mimic their observed behaviors."

Leadership is lacking. Of course, a vaccine will offer tremendous help, but as chaos and mixed messages continue, some behaviors will become entrenched among a sizable number of consumers as wariness and mistrust intensifies. Many consumers will save more and be less inclined to travel, dine out, join crowds in museums or concerts. Many will make do with older clothes, cars and homes. The Great Depression began in 1929 and it was not until 1933 that unemployment spiked to 24 percent. 

Source: 2019-2020 data, Trading Economics; 1929-1935 data, The Balance. This post was updated on October 30. 

Separation nightmare

 

 

 

 

 

 

The United States has yet to reunite 545 children with their parents, after the federal government separated them from migrant parents in 2017 and 2018, notes a court filing by the American Civil Liberties Union.

About 60 of those children were under the age of five, reports the New York Times. The ACLU also reports more than 350 children cannot be located.

In June 2018, the government reported that 2,700 children had been removed from parents after crossing into the United States. In January 2019, the Office of the Inspector General of the US Health and Human Services Department reported more children had been separated in 2017 from parents crossing the border, at both in unauthorized areas and legal ports of entry.  In June 2019, the government admitted that more than 1500 additional children had been separated.

The government did not keep records on  the families, including names and contact details, that would have allowed for reunification.  “After deporting hundreds of separated parents, the United States government declared them 'ineligible' for reunification, because they were no longer in the U.S.,” reports Justice in Motion.

Adding to the challenges, besides the pandemic, is the Trump administration's secrecy around the policy - discovered by lawyers and journalists months into its use - and rapid deportation for many parents 

As many as two-thirds of the parents may have since been deported, report Julia Ainsley and Jacob Soboroff for NBC News. Attorneys and investigators with private groups like the ACLU and Justice in Motion conduct searches to  locate parents and children, determining their conditions and “ensuring that those parents had a voice in their children’s futures.”

Many parents had headed to the United States, fleeing violence, persecution and poverty in their home countries. As a result, some of those who already have been deported are torn about their children returning to places that offer an uncertain, even treacherous future. By no means is that a defense for officials who oversaw and implemented the cruel policies.

“The family separation crisis is the direct result of the Trump administration policy choices, driven by the view that immigrants and asylum seekers deserve nothing but cruelty and punishment,” notes the ACLU.

The United States must compensate children and families for the anguish – and continue working on reunification, ensuring accuracy with DNA testing while providing safe conditions and social support, and pursuing accountability while punishing any officials or staff for going along with such separations. Citizenship is in order for children not reunited in a timely way.

The goal of such poorly conceived policies was to deter undocumented immigration. The reduction in numbers was minimal. The costs for the families and US global standing are immense. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: Data for graph, US Customs and Border Protection; photo, Politico and ACLU.

Senior voters

 

 

 

 

 

 

Three policies have eroded support for Donald Trump among senior citizens:
 

Downplaying the risks of Covid-19

Risk for contracting Covid-19 increases with age and for those with underlying health conditions that are common among senior citizens, reports the Centers for Disease Control.  About 80 percent of all Covid-19 deaths in the United States have been among adults 65 years and older.

Yet Trump downplayed the pandemic. “I wanted to always play it down," the president said in a March interview with journalist Bob Woodward. "I still like playing it down, because I don't want to create a panic."

By September, while campaigning in Ohio, Trump noted: "It affects elderly people, elderly people with heart problems, if they have other problems, that's what it really affects, that's it. In some states thousands of people - nobody young - below the age of 18, like nobody -  they have a strong immune system - who knows?... Take your hat off to the young because they have a hell of an immune system. It affects virtually nobody.”

Suspending the payroll tax that supports Social Security payments

The payroll tax funds Social Security and Medicare, by deducting 6.2 percent from employee wages and likewise taxing employers 6.2 percent for a total of 12.4 percent.

In August, Trump signed an executive order deferring that tax for workers earning less than $4,000 biweekly from September through December – part of a multi-pronged effort to stimulate the economy stalled by the pandemic. The order targets more than 80 percent of the US workforce. The plan would be to collect that same tax in 2021 but the Trump dangled the possibility that those payments will never reach Social Security coffers: "If victorious on November 3rd, I plan to forgive these taxes and make permanent cuts to the payroll tax.”

Many major employers have declined to participate and continue to collect and pay the tax to the Internal Revenue Service. 

Support for the Social Security program runs strong among senior citizens and many understand that the payroll tax is linked to Social Security. “About 65 million Americans receive Social Security benefits. Among elderly Social Security beneficiaries, 50% of married couples and 70% of unmarried persons receive 50% or more of their income from Social Security,” reports the Social Security Administration.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration is scrambling to send out a letter to 39 million Medicare beneficiaries, promising a $200 card for purchasing drugs. “The $200 cards — which would resemble credit cards, would need to be used at pharmacies and could be branded with a reference to Trump himself — would be paid for by tapping Medicare's trust fund,” reports Politico.

The card may not subdue concerns with the average Social Security monthly benefit for retired workers at $1514.
 

 

 

 

 

Calling for negative interest rates

The president has repeatedly called for negative rates, that is, creating an easy-money policy with banks essentially paying borrowers to take out loans.

The average rate is less than 1 percent, reports the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

“Setting interest rates below zero would in theory boost consumer spending and business investment by making it easy to get a loan,” reports Business Insider, yet the policy does not necessarily boost consumer spending and can restrict bank profitability and central bank agility for tackling future economic crises.

“The prospect of lower interest rates may put retirees in a bind: Contend with less growth on their ‘safe money’ or consider taking more equity risk,” reports CNBC.

The president may have irritated the wrong group of people. Exit polls in 2015 showed Trump won with 52 percent support from voters aged 65 and older. A CNN poll suggests that this year Trump will be lucky to crack that group by 40 percent. 

Source for graphs: Data on Covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths among senior citizens, CDC; voter turnout, US Census Bureau.

Fixation error

Donald Trump, now diagnosed with Covid-19, claims to have done a great job on protecting Americans from the pandemic and touts his partial ban on travel from China imposed in January.

Former Vice President Joe Biden, during the first 2020 presidential candidate debate, blasted Trump for letting the Covid-19 pandemic get out of hand, resulting in more than 7.5 million cases and more than 200,000 dead. Trump retorted: “And if you were here, it wouldn’t be 200, it would be 2 million people because you were very late on the draw. You didn’t want me to ban China, which was heavily infected. You didn’t want me to ban Europe.”

Vice President Mike Pence repeated the claim during the vice-presidential candidate debate: Trump “suspended all travel from China, the second-largest economy in the world. Joe Biden opposed that decision, he said it was xenophobic and hysterical.”

 The evidence does not support such claims, and Trump’s approach to the pandemic is flawed due to “fixation error,” or the  tendency, as identified by the aviation and medical industries, to approach problem-solving by seeking and blaming a “single, ‘root’ cause.”  As one medical journal puts it, “Fixation errors occur when the practitioner concentrates solely upon a single aspect of a case to the detriment of other more relevant aspects.”

Let’s take a closer at the US ban on travel from China and the timing. The United States diagnosed its first Covid-19 case on January 20. 

Days later, by January 23, China cut off Wuhan, a city of 11 million people and the epicenter of the virus, from the rest of the country. 

The Trump administration imposed its restrictions for travelers from China on January 31, when the country then reported about 10,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases, with 114 more scattered in 22 other countries. 

Section 1 of Trump's executive order limited US entry of all aliens who were physically present within China, excluding Hong Kong and Macau, during the previous 14 days. Section 2 offered a long list of exceptions – US citizens and lawful residents and their family members, air and sea crew members, foreign government officials or “any alien whose entry would not pose a significant risk of introducing, transmitting, or spreading the virus, as determined by the CDC Director, or his designee.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dozens of countries banned travelers from China – including the United States, India and Japan – yet that measure alone did not guarantee success in containing the virus. The United States and India now rank first and second as countries with the most Covid-19 cases, more than 7 million cases and 6 million, respectively. 

On the other hand, Japan, ranking 45th, quickly contained the virus with masks and social distancing and has recorded 83,000 cases. Japan issued a targeted travel ban for foreign travelers from regions in China with high rates about six weeks later.  Japan plans to gradually lift overseas travel alerts starting this month, starting with nations with low infection rates, and negotiates with China on business travel. 

Then, there are Cambodia and Taiwan, ranking 186th and 173rd.  Cambodia initially declined to ban travelers from China, and instead targeted those from the United States and four European nations along with Iran while continuing to welcome Chinese visitors. Taiwan instituted a ban on foreign travel six weeks after the US ban.

More than nine months into the pandemic, China reports a total of 85,000 cases.  

Containing the virus requires more than travel bans. Governments that successfully contained the spread of Covid-19 - and since reopened their economies – relied on a multi-prong approach that includes honest, consistent messaging based on latest health research combined with physical distancing, crowd limits, regular testing  and masks in public places. 

Clearly, the travel ban on China was not enough – as the United States represents about 4 percent of the world’s population and more than 20 percent of Covid-19 cases. China represents about 20 percent of the world's population and less than 1 percent of  cases. 

"A systems approach to safety does not mean staff can simply deny responsibility and 'blame the system,'" argues Gaylene Heard. Instead, caregivers must take a big-picture approach in handling complex medical problems. 

Containing the virus requires more than travel bans. Governments that successfully contained the spread of Covid-19 - and since reopened their economies – relied on a multi-prong approach that includes honest, consistent messaging based on latest health research combined with physical distancing, crowd limits, regular testing  and masks in public places. 

Domestic terrorism

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let’s get this straight – since March, a majority of Michiganders have supported Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s efforts to control the Covid-19 pandemic including mandatory masks and a stay-at-home order. She is viewed favorably by 51 percent of likely voters, suggests one recent survey, and in April, another poll suggested that 57 percent of state residents approved of her handling of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Even so, the federal government has charged six people with plotting to abduct or kill Whitmer. Seven others were charged with plotting to overturn the government in Lansing. “In early 2020, the FBI became aware through social media that a group of individuals were discussing the violent overthrow of certain government and law-enforcement components,” reports an affidavit unsealed today. “The group decided they needed to increase their numbers and encouraged each other to talk to their neighbors and spread their message.” As a result, informants became involved. A confidential informant became involved and secretly recorded sessions.

Timeline: 

Mar 23: Governor Whitmer issues stay-at home order. 

April 17: President Donald Trump sends out tweet "Liberate Michigan." 

May 5 and 14: Armed protests at state capitol in Lansing.

June 20, Grand Rapids, MI: Small group discuss plans for assaulting Michigan State Capitol, counter law enforcement, use “Molotov cocktails to destroy police vehicles.

June 25, Munith, MI: Tactical training exercise.

July 10-12, Cambria, WI: Combat drills.

July 18, Ohio: Meeting on attacking Michigan State Police facility and shooting governor’s vacation home.

July 27, Grand Rapids: Discuss getting a realtor to help them find the exact location of the governor’s vacation home.

July 28 telephone call: Narrows down target to vacation home.

Aug 9, Munith: Tactical training and group call that discussed assessing the governor’s primary home, kidnapping her. One said, "Have one person go to her house. Knock on the door and when she answers it just cap her….”

Aug 18, group call: Discuss surveillance of vacation home and escape from scene by boat on lake.

Aug 23, Lake Orion, MI: Meeting that discussed concern about infiltration by law enforcement and attendees brought personal documents.

Aug 29: Conducted surveillance of the vacation home (location will not be identified here) and checked on locations of nearest police.

Sept 12-13, Luther, MI: Meeting and practice to detonate IED and plan another nighttime surveillance of the vacation home; three cars drive by the home and record their observations; they inspect nearby bridge to place IED. During that drive, one of the accused notes: “I can see several states takin’ their f------ tyrants.” On return ride, they discuss killing the governor and destroying the vacation home. They plan a final practice session in late October. 

Sept 14, encrypted chat: The group decides the last week in October is too late for a final training exercise in order to complete the abduction before the November election.

Sept 17, encrypted chat: Discuss armed protest at state capitol in Lansing but caution is urged.

Oct 2, encrypted chat: One member of the group purchases a taser and the group plans to meet Oct 7 to pay for explosives and tactical gear.

The FBI and Michigan investigation and arrests came soon after US Senator Mike Lee of Utah sends out a tweet: “Democracy isn’t the objective; liberty, peace, and prospefity are. We want the human condition to flourish. Rank democracy can thwart that.”

Rank democracy threatens Republican power. Republicans are struggling with their policy ideas and control with minority rule. They control the Senate, gaining seats in 2018, even though Democrats led Republicans by more than 12 million votes in Senate races that year. In 2016, Donald Trump won the presidency even though Hillary Clinton won 3 million more votes. In turn, Senate Republicans’ refusal to review or vote on former President Barack Obama’s judicial nominations allowed Donald Trump to “pack the courts.”

Democrats must vote and produce landslide results to counter voter suppression efforts, gerrymandering, misinformation and outright cheating.  

Risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The advice from public health experts on Covid-19 is to wear mask and practice social distancing, avoiding crowds. 

Those who deliberately ignore these guidelines are not taking on risk solely for themselves. Instead, their actions also place everyone around them at risk without their choice. 

By now, Americans understand that many Republicans – those who take their lead from President Donald Trump and mock masks and insist on attending events and going about business as usual – are placing anyone around them at risk of contracting the virus. The United States has more than 7 million cases, more than any other country in the world, and reports more than 200,000 deaths.

Too many current leaders neglect their responsibility to protect public health. "Public health promotes and protects the health of people and the communities where they live, learn, work and play," reports the American Public Health Association. "While a doctor treats people who are sick, those of us working in public health try to prevent people from getting sick or injured in the first place. We also promote wellness by encouraging healthy behaviors."

The president has Covid-19, and his medical team resists criticizing his reticence to wear a mask or maintain social distancing. They did not reject a car ride to see supporters that could bring risk to his Secret Service agents. They do not lead on contact tracing for the White House staff exposed to the president or the other multiple staff exposed to the virus. Likewise, they refuse to disclose the president’s test schedule or results. 

Sean Conley, the US president’s physician who famously denied that the president was not “now” on oxygen immediately triggered curiosity from the media and public at large. Had he been at oxygen at all since testing positive for Covid-19?

“I was trying to reflect the upbeat attitude that the team, the president, the course of this illness has had. I didn’t want to give any information that might steer the course of illness another direction. And in doing so, it came off as we were trying to hide something – which wasn’t necessarily true.” The comment was an effort to extend blame, suggesting the entire team was might be responsible for the deceptive comments he alone made. 

Conley backtracked the following day, after the medical team reported the president was receiving the steroid dexamethasone, reported to help people with severe cases of Covid-19.  

Conley's denials and upbeat assessments harm not only the president but anyone near him. Conley and the rest of the White House report that the president has since been resting and symptom free, otherwise sharing few details, including the dates and results of his Covid-19 tests.

The president’s doctors should strive to protect public health, stressing guidelines from the World Health Organization that follow and do a public service by pointing out the president’s willful violations.

Those guidelines:
•    Regularly and thoroughly clean hands with alcohol-based rub or soap and water.
•    Practice social distancing by maintaining at least 3 feet of space between yourself and others.
•    Avoid crowded places.
•    Wear a fabric mask when physical distancing cannot be maintained.
•    Avoid touching eyes, nose and mouth.
•    Follow good respiratory hygiene, covering mouth and nose with bent elbow or tissue when coughing or sneezing. Then dispose of used tissues and wash hands.
•    Stay home and self-isolate with symptoms such as cough, headache and mild fever, until you recover.
•    Seek medical attention for a fever, cough and difficulty breathing
•    Keep up to date on the latest information from trusted health authorities.

Fast talker

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The first question in the first 2020 presidential debate focused on Donald Trump’s effort to place a third justice on the US Supreme Court – and the topic quickly turned to health care and Republican efforts to end the Affordable Care Act. 

The Affordable Care Act, aiming to increase preventive care and curb the rising costs of health care, imposed regulations on the industry. The Trump administration and a group of states have asked the US Supreme Court to strike down the Affordable Care with arguments scheduled for November 10, a week after the election. Trump hopes to have his nominee on the court by then.  “The case centers on Republicans’ move to use the 2017 tax overhaul to nix the law’s penalty for most Americans who don’t get health coverage,” reports Todd Ruger for Roll Call. “The Trump administration and the Republican-led states argue that move made the mandate to buy insurance unconstitutional.”

Ruger raises the possibility that the court will resist wiping out the entire law even if it finds that a small sliver is unconstitutional. Trump and the Republicans who oppose the law suggest the mandate is central to the Affordable Care Act – and that the entire law should be scrapped. 

As was emphasized during an early exchange in the first presidential debate, the administration has no substitute health plan waiting in the wings.

Moderator Chris Wallace: You have promised to repeal and replace Obamacare, but you have never in these four years come up with a comprehensive plan to replace Obamacare…
President Trump: Listen, listen … of course, we have…  I got rid of the individual mandate… excuse me, we got rid of the individual mandate, which was a big chunk of Obamacare…
Wallace: That is not a comprehensive plan.
Trump: That is absolutely a big thing…that was the worst part of Obamacare.
Wallace: I didn’t ask, sir…
Trump: Chris, that was the worst part of Obamacare.
Wallace: Let me ask my question.
Trump: Well, I’ll ask Joe. The individual mandate was the most unpopular aspect of Obamacare.
Wallace: Mr. President...
Trump: I got rid of it and we will protect people with per-existing conditions...
Wallace: Mr .President, I’m the moderator of this debate and I would like you to let me ask my question and then you can answer.
Trump: Go ahead.

That exchange of about 150 words lasted 35 seconds, about twice the pace of that for the average US speaker. The speed, tone and many interruptions reflect why the debate was so painful to follow.

Studies suggest that people judge individual intelligence based on one's voice and how fast one speaks - though "Not too fast, of course, or they won’t understand a word you’re saying," reports Ian Lee for Lifehack. "Nevertheless, faster speakers are perceived to be more confident..."  

Ending the Affordable Care Act without a suitable replacement during the Covid-19 pandemic would be unconscionable. The individual mandate – while ensuring that society could pay for affordable care and efforts to ensure all – was not the biggest or most notable aspect of the Affordable Care Act. A decision to discard the entire law due to the mandate would eliminate the many benefits associated with the Affordable Care Act over the past decade. 

 Those benefits apply to far more than the than the 23 million Americans who would otherwise be uninsured and would also hurt Americans who have employee-sponsored insurance, including: 

-    Allowing parents to keep adult children on family health plans until age 26.
-    Reducing health care costs for small businesses with a care tax credit
-    Expanding mental health treatment
-    Eliminating annual and lifetime coverage limits
-    Preventing denial of coverage due to pre-existing conditions
-    Limiting  administrative costs and profits of insurance companies to no more than 20 percent for plans sold to small employers and 15 percent for plans arranged by large employers. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Health care is a business in the United States and represents about 18 percent of the economy. Companies make money on patients, and the careers of thousands of doctors, nurses, pharmacists, insurers and many more workers in the health care field depend on the system, too.

All is not lost and analysts expect the US Supreme Court – even with an additional conservative justice to replace the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg – to support the law.  “Constitutional litigation is not a game of gotcha against Congress, where litigants can ride a discrete constitutional flaw in a statute to take down the whole, otherwise constitutional statute,” wrote Justice Brett Kavanaugh in the majority opinion on another aspect of the case in 2015.

Source: Affordable Care Act benefits, The Balance.
 

Public trust

Voters in swing states confront not only a barrage of advertising but also applications for mail-in ballots. So far, this household in Michigan has received six applications for mail-in ballots for each of the two adults, along with five more applications for a previous occupant who sold the home more than a decade ago. We are planning on voting in person.

With Joe Biden leading in most of the swing states, incumbent Donald Trump is clearly desperate, indicating that he may resist leaving office if his campaign deems the voting to be unfair. A pattern emerges, though – especially troubling as the country continues to wrestle with the Covid-19 pandemic:  Trump consistently blasts voting by mail for blue states, but offers no complaints about such procedures in red states.   

Analysts have expressed concern that some partisan officials may point to close races and disputes as a reason for not relying on each state’s popular vote for choosing electors who will then cast deciding votes through the Electoral College.

“The US constitution gives state legislatures the authority to appoint the 538 electors to the electoral college who ultimately elect the president,” reports Sam Levine for the Guardian. “States have long used the winner of the popular vote to determine who gets the electoral votes in their states, but Republicans anonymously told the Atlantic the campaign has discussed the possibility of using delays in the vote count as a basis to ask Republican-controlled legislatures to appoint their own electors, regardless of the final vote tally.”

All eyes are on swing states – Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. A problem for Biden and the Democrats is that Republicans control legislatures in eight of the nine key swing states. 

The secretary of state is the lead election official in most states; Democrat fill the role in five of the swing states while Republicans serve in four. The country is placing its trust in election officials throughout the country. Members of the National Association of Secretaries of State have approved and reaffirmed a resolution to “ensure that elections are run in a fair and non-artisan manner so that all voters, regardless of political affiliation, are well-served” and together “strive to create a system of checks and balances that ensures the fair and equal application of election laws and procedures."  

A heavy turnout is key to success for a democratic election, determining the winner of this crucial 2020 presidential race. But record voting, by mail or by person, could also result in delays for counting and announcing results.

Plenty of observers will be on hand, and states, including Michigan, have detailed rules for challengers and poll-watchers.

Data source, Ballotpedia and the Guardian; US image, FreeVectors

Needless suffering

It was well documented in early April: Nations that acted swiftly to contain the spread of Covid-19 could lift economic restrictions more quickly. 

And most individuals  can exercise great control over preventing the illness for themselves, their loved ones and anyone they contact. Preventive measures include wearing masks and practicing social distancing, at least 6 feet especially when indoors along with avoiding crowds and staying home when displaying symptoms including coughing or fever.

Again, this was well documented in mid-March after governments in East Asia responded swiftly with discipline to the virus.  

The United States has less than 5 percent of the world's population and represents more than 20 percent of global Covid-19 cases and 20 percent of deaths. Analysts offer a mix of reasons for the country's high Covid-19 rates: impatience and, in some cases, desperation to open businesses and return to normal; failure of leaders to allow public health officials to establish timelines for reopening; a yearning quick fixes including vaccines and medicines; assumptions that healthy, comfortable and young Americans could not possibly succumb; inattention to lag times after infection and exponential rise; and politicization of the simple precaution of wearing a mask along with a lack of self-discipline or consideration for the elderly and others who might be vulnerable.

Ed Yong writes for the Atlantic:

"Many Americans trusted intuition to help guide them through this disaster. They grabbed onto whatever solution was most prominent in the moment, and bounced from one (often false) hope to the next. They saw the actions that individual people were taking, and blamed and shamed their neighbors. They lapsed into magical thinking, and believed that the world would return to normal within months. Following these impulses was simpler than navigating a web of solutions, staring down broken systems, and accepting that the pandemic would rage for at least a year.

"These conceptual errors were not egregious lies or conspiracy theories, but they were still dangerous. They manifested again and again, distorting the debate around whether to stay at home, wear masks, or open colleges. They prevented citizens from grasping the scope of the crisis and pushed leaders toward bad policies." 

Denial and political polarization have disrupted the Covid-19 response, this despite the many future unknowns anyone infected, even those who are asymptomatic, as warned by researchers since the pandemic's beginning.

The pandemic will continue throughout the winter, and a new normal is unlikely before spring of 2021. Still, as other countries demonstrated earlier this year, individuals hold immense power over preventing the rapid and deadly spread of this disease. Hundreds of new cases and deaths each day are simply unacceptable and unnecessary.

Source for data in graphs: Worldometers

Diversity

For marketing, color is said to influence mood and atmosphere. yet Gregory Ciotti writing for Psychology Today has suggested such analyses of color's influence can be controversial. “The reason: Most of today’s conversations on colors and persuasion consist of hunches, anecdotal evidence and advertisers blowing smoke about 'colors and the mind.'" The influence of colors on human behavior is an inexact science.

 Another reason? Many studies on color psychology focus on standalone colors – red or blue, black and white – rather than combinations and patterns that are key to the beauty of a quilt or a stained glass window.

 Vivid displays of color fascinate people, and a glorious mix can become an indispensable whole. The world is full of brilliant scenes – some natural and others formed by human hand. Combinations and juxtaposition, patterns and chaos, attract and command attention.

And such is the allure of a diverse community. “We all should know that diversity makes for a rich tapestry," noted Maya Angelou, "and we must understand that all the threads of the tapestry are equal in value no matter what their color.”  

No color thrives on its own in the most pleasing presentations. When encountering a colorful collection, most individuals will struggle to select just one – whether a quilt, scarf, flower or vase.  

Even an endless stretch of beach, ocean, canyon, meadow or sky is composed of multiple if subtle shades.  

Diversity should be treasured, especially in the United States, a nation of immigrants. Too many have forgotten the value in differences and the contributions of many.

“We need healing,” noted Julia Jackson, whose son struggles for his life after being shot seven times in Kenosha, Wisconsin. “I’ve been praying for the healing of our country. God has placed each and everyone one of us in this country because he wanted us be here….

"How dare we hate what we are. We are human. God did not make one type of tree or flower or fish or horse or grass or rock. How ware you ask him to make one type of human that looks just like you. I’m no just talking to Caucasian people. I’m talking to all people… no one is superior to the others.” 

How Americans handle diversity will determine the nation's destiny. As Mahatma Gandhi once said, "Our ability to reach unity in diversity will be the beauty and test of our civilization."

Photos: Underground railroad quilt, Smithsonian; glassware, Susan Froetschel; wildflowers, American Meadows; and sunset, Petr Kratochvil Public Domain Pictures.

Thoughts on suspense

The yearning to read and learn, constantly seeking truth and better ways, may be as crucial as any number of years spent in a classroom, earning grades and credits. The path to improvement depends on a willingness, even eagerness, to absorb and analyze new bits of information by any means necessary. People who want to learn more and solve big problems that others might avoid are stronger, more prepared to encounter inevitable change. They embrace rather than avoid uncertainty or feign to know it all.

Action and emotion intersect as emotions drive actions and actions drive emotions.  Likewise, there is intersection between emotion and reason in driving human judgment, as explained Chelsea Helion and David Pizarro in an essay for Handbook of Neuroethics: "The inner conflict that humans experience between their moral selves and their more unrestrained, egoistic selves has been a consistent theme in literature for centuries. While (largely) discarding the good-versus-evil aspects of this dichotomy, moral psychology has nonetheless embraced the basic division of mental processes into two general types – one mental system that is cold, rational, and deliberative, and another that is emotional, intuitive, and quick." 

The pursuit of knowledge is linked to suspense and R.J. Jacobs explains the allure of reading that provokes anxiety for CrimeReads. Readers seek a vicarious experience that offers a sense of control, the opportunity to explore possibilities in finding new methods to complete a story and the joy of solving problems.

Suspense spans a long list of emotions including fascination, hope, anticipation, envy, anger, rejection, hatred, anxiety, tension, fear and more. Aaron Smuts analyzes four theories on "The Paradox of Suspense" for the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy and points out points out that Robert Yanal suggests that "suspense is best thought of as a composite emotion," "better described as an emotional amalgam, comprised of fear and hope, where uncertainty, if it is required, is implied in the components." Smuts goes on to describe the broad nature of suspense: "The intensity of our feelings of suspense seems to rely on two features of an event's outcome: (1) its uncertainty and (2) the significance of what is at stake."  

Suspense novels encourage readers to form strong opinions and become invested in the narratives and characters. Sheila O'Neill graciously included Fear of Beauty in her video list compiled for a Ezvid Wiki - "9 Suspenseful Reads Full of Real Emotion." Sofi, the protagonist in Fear of Beauty, is desperate to learn how to read after finding some papers not far from a cliff where her son fell to his death. "Some mysteries and thrillers focus on emotionally detached sleuths and cases where the killer is simply after money. The titles on this list go a step further, tackling difficult relationships and characters facing hard truths, allowing readers to really get invested in the twists that come. Here, in no particular order, are nine books that are as emotional as they are thrilling."

Despite the prevalence of suspense in literature, the condition is rare in the modern world ... except maybe for the processes of learning and critical thinking. Learning serves as both trigger of suspense and antidote as people generally anticipate impending challenges and quickly discern possible approaches. Perhaps the readers who relish suspense literature are best adept at taming suspense, keeping this feeling at arm's length in everyday life. 

School safety

Public health experts suggest that school re-openings can go smoothly if parents and families prepare and heed precautions to prevent the spread of Covid-19. 
Yet schools cannot neglect the most vulnerable students. At least 25 percent of children in the United States aged 2 to 8 years have at least one chronic health condition – and as many of 30 million children with one or more of such conditions could be especially vulnerable to Covid-19 infection. Some families may not realize that their children are vulnerable as some ailments like heart conditions can go undetected for years. Heart disease is the fifth leading cause of death for US children ages 1 to 5.

The American Academy of Pediatrics reports more than 300,000 cases of Covid-19 among US children, with rates rising by 40 percent during the last two weeks of July. Three states - California, Florida and Arizona - represent about a quarter of those cases. There are inconsistencies in how states collect data along with disagreements over the definition of a child. Most cases among children are asymptomatic but the long-term consequences are unknown. 

Mixed messages and inconsistencies in data collection do not help during a pandemic.

The UN Global Compact points out that the pandemic is “testing the world’s humanity and resilience at a time that is already marked by acute inequality.” Poor planning for the Covid-19 pandemic – and the failure of some communities to mandate masks and social distancing – could threaten learning and delay economic productivity for years to come.

All individuals must come to terms that schools, work and other social interactions will not return to normal any time soon, not until cases subside or public health experts develop efficient treatments and vaccines. Attempts to hide the pandemic’s consequences are futile as more families lose loved ones to the disease and communities confront ongoing hospitalizations and deaths.

One high school in Georgia learned this after administrators made donning masks a “personal choice.” At least two students posted images of a crowded school hallway – no social distancing in effect. The school suspended at least two students before swiftly, warning the student body about "consequences" for such public posts. The school swiftly reversed the punishment after the story received national attention. Communities want to know what schools look like - and will hold those political and school leaders who rush economic re-openings and skimp on protections accountable.

One suspended student explained to CNN that she understood school rules prohibited recording and posting school scenes on social media during the day without an administrator’s permission. But referring to the words of the late Congressman John Lewis, she expressed concern for vulnerable students, staff members and family members and said she regarded posting the photograph as “good and necessary trouble.”

Secrecy is not protection. School children represent about 18 percent of the US population. Communities and families pay taxes, fees and tuition for education and want to ensure that schools engage in safe practices not only for the children in attendance but also the staff and parents, grandparents, neighbors and other family members who might care for them.  The school superintendent notified parents that the district will provide staff with masks and reduce crowding in school hallways, reports the Washington Post.

Children, parents and staff will speak up because their health is at sake. All are armed with phones and cameras. Protecting schools is essential as children represent the future of society. As Mohandes Gandhi noted, “A nation’s greatness is measured by how it treats its weakest members.”

 This post was updated on August 11, 2020. 

Believable

The testimony of Christine Blasey Ford before the US Senate Judicial Committee by is liberating, if not for her then for the millions of women and men who have suffered similar sexual assaults, harassment and humiliation.

She wrote a note to her congressman in July describing an incident from 36 years ago. After a day at the country club, she joined a small gathering of teens at a Washington DC suburb. She had one beer and went upstairs to use the bathroom. Once upstairs, someone pushed her from behind into a bedroom. Two intoxicated young men entered the room with her, Mark Judge and Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. She describes how Kavanaugh pushed her to the bed, placed his body on top of hers and held his hand over her mouth when she tried to scream. Perhaps they thought this was roughhousing or tom-foolery, but she described terror.

The psychologist in her testimony is credible in so many ways - providing specific and vivid details along with names of others who could corroborate her report. Specifically, she recalled running into Mark Judge shortly after the evening of the assault at his place of his work - the Potomac Safeway.

Yet Republicans declined to reopen an FBI investigation or invite potential corroborating witness to testify.

Most importantly, she explained the rationale behind her hesitation in reporting and motivation for coming forward as citizen. She tried to sound a warning before the candidate was selected from a short list. She understood that the president had a list of candidates, equally qualified, and she thought the president and the senators - not necessarily the general public - should know about her experience before making a decision. She did not want to destroy Brett Kavanaugh.

But now, senators may quietly wonder if Kavanaugh should remain on the federal appeals court. If he had been truthful about these experiences and extended a sincere apology, if he did not have a background that includes other descriptions of his intoxication and belligerence, then many Americans might understand and forgive, especially if he could provide evidence of an ability to curtail his drinking.

Ford endured a polygraph exam. Could Kavanaugh do the same?

Absent an investigation that includes questioning of Mark Judge and an apology from Mark Kavanaugh about inappropriate behaviors including intoxication, the nomination should be withdrawn. Kavanaugh should expect to answer more questions about whether he should remain in his position with the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.

No surprise

A pedophile scandal in Massachusetts - and more importantly, the response from church leaders - prompted me to abandon Catholicism in 1992. A decade later, I wrote about my decision in an essay entitled "The Church Must Change" for The Hartford Courant.

The decision was one of the toughest, but also best that I have ever made. I described growing up in a devout Catholic family in a Pittsburgh suburb, first in Ingram and Crafton, Pennsylvania, and later moving to another neighborhood that surrounded Our Lady of Grace Church in 1969. We attended church for about six months but soon afterward, my father, brothers, sisters and I started volunteering in a nearby county nursing home, Kane Hospital, assisting patients in wheelchairs to and from the Masses. The priest was one of the most compassionate men I have ever met - and in the essay, I described his tolerance and kindness. "We trusted and admired him completely and he never took advantage of that trust," I wrote, adding that many young Catholics had been less fortunate.

So I have only the vaguest memories of the parish priests assigned to Our Lady of Grace parish. The 900-page grand jury report released by the Pennsylvania state attorney general references Leo Burchianti at the church from June 1968 to May 1973: "Burchianti was alleged to have had inappropriate contact with at least eight young boys," reports the Grand Jury report, page 600. "These allegations included but were not limited to Burchianti: having anal or oral sex with them; inappropriately touching them; making suggestive comments to them; providing alcohol to them; allowing them to use drugs in the rectory; and inviting some to stay overnight to sleep in his bed with him."

Because of our volunteer work at the nursing home, I did not know Burchianti other than to watch him preside over a few Masses. I heard no stories of abuse. I had already come to view religion as more a practical means of reaching out to help others and less for personal introspection and prayer. 

I left the church years later while living in the suburbs of Boston. In 1992, the former Catholic priest James Porter was accused of molesting more than 100 children in Massachusetts New Mexico and Minnesota. Church leaders in the area did not respond well to criticism that they hid the actions of a pedophile by transferring him to new locales. In May of that year, Boston's then Cardinal Bernard Law lashed out not at Porter, but at the journalists covering the priest's crimes: "By all means, we call down God's power on the media."

That was the moment I lost all trust in the Roman Catholic Church. The leaders sought to protect an institution rather than little children. As a parent, I was immensely grateful for the media reports.

My essay for the Courant was published a decade later, March 24, 2002, when the entire nation and church reckoned with another more far-reaching scandal. I wrote about how religion, like everything else in the United States, must compete under the free-market system: "In this country, we have the privilege of free thought and speech, and we can decide which 'moral" rules imposed by religious leaders, mere mortals, should be kept and which are meant to be broken."

At the time, I was confident the Catholic Church would change: "I have no doubt that within this century, priests will be free to marry and women be encouraged to value life by using birth control." I also concluded that "if the Church waits very long, it will only be a shadow, a minor religion in this country, as it loses credibility and more Catholics discover that other religions can offer both spirituality and truth."

Ultimately, my books about religion, women and life in rural Afghanistan, Fear of Beauty and Allure of Deceit, were based on my own experiences with Catholicism and religious controls.

Once again, the church must change.

Image courtesy of Wikimedia Commons. 

Grateful

"What book have you read that makes you feel as if you've been on a the journey that the narrator has taken?" Julie Lawson Timmer asked on Reddit.

A good question for finding good books. My own personal favorite is Bound for the Promised Land by Richard Marius, a story of a young man who leaves his home in Georgia for San Francisco in the 1850s, in search of his father who left for the Gold Rush, and the many characters he meets along the way.

And I'm grateful that a commenter mentioned Fear of Beauty. It's an honor to be included with the likes of The Count of Monte Christo, Heart of Darkness and The Goldfinch.

Warning !

Charities cannot and should not replace government. That was the message of the novel Allure of Deceit and it's also the warning from philanthropist Bill Gates in the article by Kate Hodal for the Guardian, as summarized by YaleGlobal Online: 

"Charitable giving may have created an incentive for governments to pursue budget cuts in every area, then replacing paid librarians with volunteers or relying on charities during major disasters. 'Although it is the world’s largest private philanthropic organisation, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, founded in 2000, spends just over $3bn (£2.25bn) a year on development assistance,' reports Kate Hodal for the Guardian, adding this is "one-tenth of the US aid budget and almost one-fiftieth of the global aid budget, which stands at $143bn."

Charitable giving and work is wonderful, but no one should forget that individuals set the agenda. They have reasons and, with limited funds, they select the recipients. This is opposed to governments which presumably have a responsibility to the public at large. Theoretically in democracies,  the public selects representatives who set agendas and priorities.

Charitable work, often experimental, can teach governments about best practices. Yet for this very reason, the thousands of charities operating in any country often have contradictory goals and diverse approaches. As Gates notes, charity can provide only patchwork relief. Complete coverage of a nation or the globe by charities in tackling major needs - whether health care, education, or poverty alleviation - is impossible. Limited funds and uneven goals lacking in comprehensive coverage have transformed charity into a lottery - where nations and donors can tout a few good schools, hospitals, libraries, homes or more while many more must go without.  

Yet the challenges of illiteracy, disease or marginalization, as noted in Fear of Beauty, can quickly cross borders and can hurt us all.

Both Fear of Beauty and Allure of Deceit focus on the many contradictions of charitable giving and NGO work in Afghanistan, specifically with family planning and poverty. A woman who leads the world's largest foundation, taking control after the death of her son, targets program planning to figure out why he was murdered. Staff members of the foundation are intent on nurturing their own careers  while supporting a mission in Afghanistan that includes family planning - reducing the fertility rate from about nine children per woman in 2000 when the Taliban were in control to five. Values clash, and Afghan providers who are recipients of international aid - torn between the demands of rural village leaders and international donors - are resented, prompting them to commit fraud. Amid the flow of so much money, it becomes dangerous for anyone to argue that charities reinforce inequality or suggest that the public must set priorities after thorough review with taxation as the best funding mechanism.


Emphasizing government funding over charitable giving does not let individuals off the hook. In a connected world, we must lend a hand to others in need.  And efficiency is required with limited resources and more communities in need.

Quality

Donald Trump Jr's release today of an email exchange is stunning on many levels. The exchange suggests he understood that Russia wanted to support Donald Trump's presidential campaign with damaging information about his opponent Hillary Clinton. Younger Trump, along with Jared Kushner and Paul Manafort, then campaign manager, met with a Russian attorney proffering the information in June 2016. After the meeting was proposed in an email, Donald Jr's response was quick: "If it’s what you say, I love it, especially later in the summer.” The response suggested he had little doubt about the type of support and few concerns about the source of such opposition research.

The lawyer, wanting to help the campaign, insinuated that Russians had been funding and supporting the Democratic National Committee, but had no proof. Trump Jr noted that the lawyer was "vague" and "made no sense" with "no meaningful information." He did not alert authorities like the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Instead, he and perhaps the other two took it upon themselves to determine the information was meaningless.

By all accounts, this is a clown show, and we may not ever really know all what was said during the meeting. The US president's response,  according to a statement read by the deputy White House press secretary: "My son is a high-quality person and I applaud his transparency."

The statement resonates with sarcasm considering that Donald Jr has revised descriptions about the meeting several times and is among Trump campaign officials, some who still work for the US government, forced to revise lists of meetings with foreign nationals.

Collusion, election fraud, lying to American voters should not be a surprise with this young presidency, not after the wearying campaign. What is surprising is that Donald Jr released these emails himself, as if he saw nothing wrong. As US Senator Mazie Hirono put it on Twitter, "When @realDonaldTrump said show us the evidence of collusion, I have to say, I didn't expect his son to answer."

One who may be a party to the patterns of a possible crime - a growing list of events being investigated by Robert Mueller and congressional committees - should not be praised for transparency after rushing to beat reporting by the New York Times. 

This is neither a track record of competence nor "high quality" - a disturbing and tasteless phrase, one that signals division, otherness, marginalization, insecurity and reflects troubling policy proposals that target large groups of people like Muslims and immigrants. Another son, Eric, echoed such a sentiment about Democrats during an interview: "I've never seen hatred like this. To me, they're not even people. It's so, so sad. I mean, morality is just gone. Morals have flown out the window. We deserve so much better than this as a country."

The campaign capitalized on deeming common courtesy as "political correctness" and some spokespeople even fed the resentment and encouraged scapegoating. Supporters - from emotion or a lack of education - did not question shallow reasoning or quick fixes. The media honed in on supporters' crude signs, bullying and fist fights at campaign rallies. Hillary Clinton called out the alarming behavior, using a phrase that eventually came to haunt her:

"We are living in a volatile political environment. You know, to just be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump's supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. Right? The racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic - you name it. And unfortunately there are people like that. And he has lifted them up. He has given voice to their websites that used to only have 11,000 people - now 11 million. He tweets and retweets their offensive hateful mean-spirited rhetoric. Now, some of those folks - they are irredeemable, but thankfully they are not America." Her remarks included another age-old signal - "Right?" - so often alerting skeptical and doleful listeners to the possibility of discriminatory words and feelings that will only cause woe to the one who dares utter them, even if only once, even though followed by swift apology.

Back to "high quality" people, a phrase that suggests that some people for are innately better than other people and deserve more - money, leeway, chances, support, opportunity to complain, cut corners, make mistakes, cheat and lie. There are better descriptors. Consider an article by Forbes - "5 qualities of charismatic people: How many do you have?" The qualities: self-confidence, including optimism; the skill to tell stories; body language that is open and approachable; relying on conversation about others and being a good listener.Those who assign labels like "high quality" may think that only they can decide rules, who must follow and need not, when perpetrators should be exposed and punished or forgiven. Those who use the phrase are insecure, desperate to be regarded as better of others, deserving of a higher standard of justice even while they make mistake after mistake after mistake.

And this is a pillar in intervening and disrupting medical decisions for British infant Charlie Gard, diagnosed as terminally ill by his doctors - assuming this represents kind, magnanimity and justice - blind to any contradictions with policies blocking thousands of refugee families from Syria many with their own infants.

Russia intervened in the US presidential election, and the United States was conned, a reflection of many voters' failure to follow the news and apply critical thinking and logic to wild populist claims designed to infuriate without delivering viable solutions..

As Nicholas Kristof notes for the New York Times, it is a sad day for the country. It's also a sad day for democracy and the globe.