Trust

UPDATE: The networks have called the race for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris as of noon November 7.

Leading in the vote counts for Pennsylvania and Georgia, Joe Biden is poised to become the 46th president of the United States. Despite thin margins and three days of counting, with more to come, Biden's vows to restore decency, honor, dignity and personal integrity to the White House should not become an afterthought.

Biden has promised to be a president for all Americans - “I’ll work hard for those who didn’t support me, as hard for them as I did for those who did vote for me. That’s the job of a president” - even as the incumbent increasingly appealed to his narrow base, deriding opponents and suggesting, “Lock them all up.”

The pandemic ensured uncertainty about the outcome, disrupting the 2020 presidential campaign and flipping old stereotypes – as some seniors who long supported Republican candidates gave the nod to Biden while young adults, who once might have voted for Democratic candidates, approved Donald Trump’s rush to open the economy. The true extent might not ever be known because polls failed in providing accurate, meaningful counts.

The Covid-19 pandemic and a devastated economy emerged as leading concerns for voters, two issues that did not have to diverge. Trump's supporters do not see the connections between health and the economy and reject pandemic restrictions as a route to reopening the economy. Trump, by his own words, downplayed the virus early on, repeatedly promising that it would gradually disappear and suggesting the media would stop covering the pandemic once election day had passed. Instead, the country reports more than 100,000 new infections and 1,200 deaths, and the country can expect to endure pain with the approach of winter, as people spend more time indoors and are more susceptible to contagious diseases. The country is, in “a bad place,” warns Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, about the disease that is far more contagious and deadly than the flu.

Despite Biden's win, more than 40 percent of the country fervently supports Trump. Following the president’s lead, his supporters resist wearing masks or avoiding crowds. They mock and even threaten those who aim for caution, rejecting public-health initiatives, including testing and contact tracing, and claim that the media and public health officials have exaggerated the threat. Trump even suggested at one rally that doctors inflate Covid-19 deaths: "You know, our doctors get more money if someone dies of Covid." Earlier this year, media fact-checkers labeled as false reports claiming that Trump had called the pandemic called the pandemic a hoax,” Instead, they explained, the hoax to which Trump referred was media criticism of his handling of the pandemic rather than the virus itself. By October, Trump posted a Tweet, suggesting, “Cases up because we TEST, TEST, TEST. A Fake News Media Conspiracy. Many young people who heal very fast. 99.9%. Corrupt Media conspiracy at all time high.”

Such hair-splitting overshadowed the overriding argument. Trump's comments have motivated his supporters, representing almost half the population, to disregard advice from health experts. Hence, numerous reports emerged of shoppers berating and attacking store staff for asking customers to abide by local health regulations and wear masks. One security guard was even killed. Eventually, the CDC had to balance multiple threats: “The CDC recommended that businesses institute policies such as mask-wearing, social distancing and customer limits but warned that workers could be threatened or assaulted for enforcing them. "

Simply put, half the US population, not to mention millions of onlookers around the globe, struggle to trust the common sense of large numbers of citizens who belittle expertise and science and refuse to treat the pandemic seriously. Individuals worried about the virus must now reconsider going to restaurants, gyms, salons and other service providers with owners who support Trump. Customers cannot help but wonder if financial advisors, car mechanics, construction workers, landscapers, child care workers, accountants, farmers, nurses, physicians and many more – so willing to reject expert advice on the pandemic – also cut corners and cheat on other regulations?

Citizens are paying attention, and some businesses can expect to lose many customers for good.  

Wearing a mask demonstrates not subjugation but respect and common courtesy for others, a willingness to avoid unnecessarily exposing colleagues and strangers alike to a brutal disease that can kill the most vulnerable among us. The divide over Trump versus Biden has not only divided communities but has also broken many friendships and family ties.

From the start, Biden said the campaign was not about winning votes but repairing a nation that has lost its way. “It’s about winning the heart, and yes, the soul of America,” he said, in accepting the Democratic presidential nomination. “Winning it for the generous among us, not the selfish. Winning it for workers who keep this country going, not just the privileged few at the top. Winning it for those communities who have known the injustice of a knee on the neck. For all of the young people who have known only America being a rising inequity and shrinking opportunity. They deserve the experience of America’s promise. They deserve to experience it in full. No generation never knows what history will ask of it. All we can ever know is whether we’re ready when that moment arrives. And now history has delivered us to one of the most difficult moments America’s ever faced.”  

He repeated that sentiment soon after the election as counts continued and signaled victory was within his grasp: "To make progress, we have to stop treating our opponents as enemies. We are not enemies. What brings us together as Americans is so much stronger than anything that can tear us apart. So let me be clear. I, we, are campaigning as a Democrats, but I will govern as an American president." Biden acknowledged the obvious challenges after a heated campaign. 

Yet some issues are too big for compromise, as noted by Abraham Lincoln, in June 1858, when he accepted the Republican nomination to run as the Illinois candidate for the US Senate against Democrat Stephen A. Douglas. Douglas sought compromise on the issue of slavery and, to the alarm of some fellow party members, Lincoln insisted some issues, like slavery, pose moral imperatives. His fiery speech borrowed a phrase from the Bible to reject strategies of unending compromise: 

"Under the operation of that policy, that agitation has not only, not ceased, but has constantly augmented. In my opinion, it will not cease, until a crisis shall have been reached, and passed. 'A house divided against itself cannot stand.' I believe this government cannot endure, permanently half slave and half free. I do not expect the Union to be dissolved - I do not expect the house to fall - but I do expect it will cease to be divided. It will become all one thing or all the other. Either the opponents of slavery, will arrest the further spread of it, and place it where the public mind shall rest in the belief that it is in the course of ultimate extinction; or its advocates will push it forward, till it shall become alike lawful in all the States, old as well as new - North as well as South." 

Lincoln lost that Senate race, but historians later suggested the sentiment of  the "house divided" speech  propelled him to the presidency. In that speech, he pointed out that the Supreme Court would make far-reaching decisions on slavery based on laws:  "We shall lie down pleasantly dreaming that the people of Missouri are on the verge of making their State free; and we shall awake to the reality, instead, that the Supreme Court has made Illinois a slave State. To meet and overthrow the power of that dynasty, is the work now before all those who would prevent that consummation."

Some Americans display similar passion today, ready to fight on some issues, including climate change and abortion. They embrace Lincoln's conclusion: "if we stand firm, we shall not fail. Wise councils may accelerate or mistakes delay it, but, sooner or later the victory is sure to come." 

The nation's divisions today are far more pervasive today than the regional disagreements of the civil war, and cannot be resolved with violent extremism as suggested by Steve Bannon, a former advisors for Trump. He called for the firing of FBI Director Christopher Wray and Dr. Fauci in a YouTube show that has since been removed from the platform: 

“Now I actually want to go a step farther, but I realize the president is a kind-hearted man and a good man. I’d actually like to go back to the old times of Tudor England, I’d put the heads on pikes, right, I’d put them at the two corners of the White House as a warning to federal bureaucrats. You either get with the program or you’re gone – time to stop playing games.... The [American] revolution wasn’t some sort of garden party, right? It was a civil war. It was a civil war.” 

Joe Biden has inherited a mess, including a pandemic out of control, a ruined economy and a divided citizenry. The country must wait until January 20 for  Biden's inauguration, but in the meantime, he can continue to listen, focus on policy, offer consistent messages, and calmly lead by example rather than showmanship, misinformation and a mob mentality. 

Rebuilding trust will take time with each of us striving to be fair, kind, empathetic and strong. As Mahatma Gandhi once noted, “Your beliefs become your thoughts, your thoughts become your words, your words become your actions, your actions become your habits, your habits become your values, your values become your destiny.” 

Photo of Biden courtesy of Carlos Barria, Reuters; Covid-19 data, Worldometers.

Vote!

The election is one day away and soon the signs dotting the landscape will vanish. Here, a small sample from East Lansing...

Battle ground

Some jurisdictions have managed to contain the damage from the Covid-19 pandemic even as the United States leads the world in cases followed by India, Brazil and Russia.

"Taiwan has reached a record 200 days without any domestically transmitted cases of Covid-19, underlining its success in keeping the virus under control as cases rise across much of the world," reports the Guardian. Taiwan has strong ties to China and Wuhan, where the pandemic began, and yet authorities contained the spread with quarantines, masks, testing and contact tracing - and kept the numbers down. Taiwan did have experience with SARS in 2003 and continues to record new cases among arriving travelers.

If Taiwan were a US state, its population pof 24 million would rank as third largest, between Texas at 29 million and Florida at 21 million.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The inept handling of the Covid-19 pandemic at the US federal level is a concern for senior citizens, businesses, minorities, women and anyone with common sense. Failure to contain the disease's spread with simple measures - wearing masks and practicing social distancing along with testing and contact tracing - is posing lingering, dire economic consequences.  

The Trump administration has given up trying to control the spread. Mark Meadows, chief of staff, noted to a journalist: "We are not going to control the pandemic. We are going to control the fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics and other mitigation areas..." 

But that is a costly, wasteful and deadly approach. As the old saying goes, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. 

Donald Trump mocks doctors, the media and his rival for focusing on the issue. “That's all I hear. Turn on television, ‘COVID, COVID, COVID, COVID, COVID, COVID'....By the way, on Nov. 4 you won't hear about it anymore.’’

Joe Biden continues to focus on the pandemic: "We discussed importance of wearing masks, protecting yourself, protecting your neighbor and to save around 100,000 lives in the months ahead. This is not political. It's patriotic. Wearing a mask. Wear one, period."

Battleground states have been hit hard and on Nov 3 voters will weigh in on whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden is best suited for leading the country on the Covid-19 response and other pressing matters, including climate change and widening inequality.

Source: Worldometers; checklist, Freepik.

Child care

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 During the final 2020 presidential debate, Joe Biden blasted Donald Trump for family-separation policies and government’s inability to reunite hundreds of children with their parents after a failure to keep records and contact details. Trump responded that the facilities were clean: “Let me say this. They worked it out, we brought reporters and everything. They are so well taken care of. They're in facilities that were so clean…”

The US government spends hundreds of millions of dollars on caring for children who should not have been separated from family members. “In fiscal year 2019, the latest year for which complete data are available, ORR awarded grants totaling over $1.8 billion to organizations providing shelter and other services to these children,” reports the US Government Accountability Office. “The numbers of these referrals have fluctuated over time, but increased substantially from almost 14,000 in fiscal year 2012 to more than 69,000 in fiscal year 2019.”

The numbers decreased sharply with media reports about the cruel policies. As of June 2020, there were 1,123 children in the care of the Office of Refugee Settlement. The GAO conducted audits since May 2019 and as of July this year, the Office of Refugee Settlement operated more than 170 facilities in 22 states. 

Current grant announcements specify that facilities must be state licensed or eligible to receive a license with 75 days of the grant award. A review suggested that most did not include such licenses in their applications, and some facilities struggled to meet the 75-day deadline. The review also found in March 2018 that one grantee had placed a child in a home with foster parents under investigation for sexual abuse of another unaccompanied child. “In fiscal years 2018 and 2019, ORR awarded grants to approximately 14 facilities that were unable to serve children for 12 or more months because they remained unlicensed. In addition, ORR did not provide any documentation that staff conducted a review of past performance for the nearly 70 percent of applicants that previously held ORR grants. Without addressing these issues, ORR risks awarding grants to organizations that cannot obtain a state license or that have a history of poor performance.”

Of 23 licensing agencies that provide licensing, 14 found deficiencies in at least one of the facilities in their state during fiscal years 2018 or 2019 – some of which were significant. Problems included administrative issues to threats to children’s health and safety.

Federal standards for reporting and inspections are lacking. “HHS monitors these facilities to ensure they're keeping children safe, among other things. But it hasn't met its own targets for how frequently it visits facilities, and doesn't consistently share information with state agencies that license them,” reports GAO. “Our recommendations include that HHS develop plans to meet its monitoring goals and share information with state agencies.”

Awarding grants to facilities with a history of poor performance puts children at risk. Separating children from their parents without cause, such as criminal violations, is a waste of taxpayer money.

Meanwhile, apprehension on the US southern border are on the rise.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: GAO and US Customs and Border Protection.

Depression?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The US economy could be in for a bumpy ride. The world has endured the health consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic since late 2019, but the economic consequences may have only just begun. 

The pandemic quickly slowed GDP growth in the United States and the government hurried with $3 trillion in stimulus spending. That spending, combined with opening economies - premature in many cases - caused GDP growth to spike. 

Yet the pandemic is not over, and so valuable time and stimulus funds have been wasted. Sizable numbers of jurisdictions and citizens continue to resist simple measures to control the spread, including mask or social-distancing mandates. 

So the numbers of cases continue to climb in the United States, rivaling the records set only a few months ago. Researchers project the number of deaths from Covid-19 by Feb 1 could range from  300,000 with a universal mask mandate and as many as 500,000 with restrictions eased.  

 

The US economy is built on unsustainable debt, and recovery requires a multi-prong approach - with targeted economic stimulus along with social measures that include self-discipline, masks, social distancing and crowd avoidance. "Social norms and the behavior of peers such as friends, family members, and colleagues affect behaviors," explains a group of researchers for Applied Health Economics and Health Policy. "Herding behavior occurs when people consider a certain behavior to be good or bad based on the behavior of other people and mimic their observed behaviors."

Leadership is lacking. Of course, a vaccine will offer tremendous help, but as chaos and mixed messages continue, some behaviors will become entrenched among a sizable number of consumers as wariness and mistrust intensifies. Many consumers will save more and be less inclined to travel, dine out, join crowds in museums or concerts. Many will make do with older clothes, cars and homes. The Great Depression began in 1929 and it was not until 1933 that unemployment spiked to 24 percent. 

Source: 2019-2020 data, Trading Economics; 1929-1935 data, The Balance. This post was updated on October 30. 

Separation nightmare

 

 

 

 

 

 

The United States has yet to reunite 545 children with their parents, after the federal government separated them from migrant parents in 2017 and 2018, notes a court filing by the American Civil Liberties Union.

About 60 of those children were under the age of five, reports the New York Times. The ACLU also reports more than 350 children cannot be located.

In June 2018, the government reported that 2,700 children had been removed from parents after crossing into the United States. In January 2019, the Office of the Inspector General of the US Health and Human Services Department reported more children had been separated in 2017 from parents crossing the border, at both in unauthorized areas and legal ports of entry.  In June 2019, the government admitted that more than 1500 additional children had been separated.

The government did not keep records on  the families, including names and contact details, that would have allowed for reunification.  “After deporting hundreds of separated parents, the United States government declared them 'ineligible' for reunification, because they were no longer in the U.S.,” reports Justice in Motion.

Adding to the challenges, besides the pandemic, is the Trump administration's secrecy around the policy - discovered by lawyers and journalists months into its use - and rapid deportation for many parents 

As many as two-thirds of the parents may have since been deported, report Julia Ainsley and Jacob Soboroff for NBC News. Attorneys and investigators with private groups like the ACLU and Justice in Motion conduct searches to  locate parents and children, determining their conditions and “ensuring that those parents had a voice in their children’s futures.”

Many parents had headed to the United States, fleeing violence, persecution and poverty in their home countries. As a result, some of those who already have been deported are torn about their children returning to places that offer an uncertain, even treacherous future. By no means is that a defense for officials who oversaw and implemented the cruel policies.

“The family separation crisis is the direct result of the Trump administration policy choices, driven by the view that immigrants and asylum seekers deserve nothing but cruelty and punishment,” notes the ACLU.

The United States must compensate children and families for the anguish – and continue working on reunification, ensuring accuracy with DNA testing while providing safe conditions and social support, and pursuing accountability while punishing any officials or staff for going along with such separations. Citizenship is in order for children not reunited in a timely way.

The goal of such poorly conceived policies was to deter undocumented immigration. The reduction in numbers was minimal. The costs for the families and US global standing are immense. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: Data for graph, US Customs and Border Protection; photo, Politico and ACLU.

Senior voters

 

 

 

 

 

 

Three policies have eroded support for Donald Trump among senior citizens:
 

Downplaying the risks of Covid-19

Risk for contracting Covid-19 increases with age and for those with underlying health conditions that are common among senior citizens, reports the Centers for Disease Control.  About 80 percent of all Covid-19 deaths in the United States have been among adults 65 years and older.

Yet Trump downplayed the pandemic. “I wanted to always play it down," the president said in a March interview with journalist Bob Woodward. "I still like playing it down, because I don't want to create a panic."

By September, while campaigning in Ohio, Trump noted: "It affects elderly people, elderly people with heart problems, if they have other problems, that's what it really affects, that's it. In some states thousands of people - nobody young - below the age of 18, like nobody -  they have a strong immune system - who knows?... Take your hat off to the young because they have a hell of an immune system. It affects virtually nobody.”

Suspending the payroll tax that supports Social Security payments

The payroll tax funds Social Security and Medicare, by deducting 6.2 percent from employee wages and likewise taxing employers 6.2 percent for a total of 12.4 percent.

In August, Trump signed an executive order deferring that tax for workers earning less than $4,000 biweekly from September through December – part of a multi-pronged effort to stimulate the economy stalled by the pandemic. The order targets more than 80 percent of the US workforce. The plan would be to collect that same tax in 2021 but the Trump dangled the possibility that those payments will never reach Social Security coffers: "If victorious on November 3rd, I plan to forgive these taxes and make permanent cuts to the payroll tax.”

Many major employers have declined to participate and continue to collect and pay the tax to the Internal Revenue Service. 

Support for the Social Security program runs strong among senior citizens and many understand that the payroll tax is linked to Social Security. “About 65 million Americans receive Social Security benefits. Among elderly Social Security beneficiaries, 50% of married couples and 70% of unmarried persons receive 50% or more of their income from Social Security,” reports the Social Security Administration.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration is scrambling to send out a letter to 39 million Medicare beneficiaries, promising a $200 card for purchasing drugs. “The $200 cards — which would resemble credit cards, would need to be used at pharmacies and could be branded with a reference to Trump himself — would be paid for by tapping Medicare's trust fund,” reports Politico.

The card may not subdue concerns with the average Social Security monthly benefit for retired workers at $1514.
 

 

 

 

 

Calling for negative interest rates

The president has repeatedly called for negative rates, that is, creating an easy-money policy with banks essentially paying borrowers to take out loans.

The average rate is less than 1 percent, reports the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

“Setting interest rates below zero would in theory boost consumer spending and business investment by making it easy to get a loan,” reports Business Insider, yet the policy does not necessarily boost consumer spending and can restrict bank profitability and central bank agility for tackling future economic crises.

“The prospect of lower interest rates may put retirees in a bind: Contend with less growth on their ‘safe money’ or consider taking more equity risk,” reports CNBC.

The president may have irritated the wrong group of people. Exit polls in 2015 showed Trump won with 52 percent support from voters aged 65 and older. A CNN poll suggests that this year Trump will be lucky to crack that group by 40 percent. 

Source for graphs: Data on Covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths among senior citizens, CDC; voter turnout, US Census Bureau.